The Premier League returned from the November international break with a dramatic twist. Four of the traditional ‘Big Six’—Manchester City, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United—failed to secure a win in the same week. The consequences of these unexpected results have shaken the league table and significantly altered the title race. Opta’s renowned supercomputer has now recalculated the probabilities, and the outcome is nothing short of fascinating.
Manchester City saw their four-match winning streak come to a halt at St James’ Park. A brilliant brace from Harvey Barnes guided Newcastle to a 2-1 victory over the defending champions. Liverpool fared even worse, suffering a shocking 3-0 defeat at Anfield to Nottingham Forest. With only one win in their last seven outings, the Reds find themselves in a troubling freefall, slipping down to twelfth place.
Arsenal, meanwhile, capitalised superbly on the chaos around them. Their ruthless 4-1 win over Tottenham further strengthened their position at the top of the table. Chelsea also returned to winning ways with a 2-0 victory against Burnley, but Manchester United once again fell apart, losing 1-0 to an Everton side struggling for survival.
Against this turbulent backdrop, Opta’s supercomputer produced its latest title-winning predictions—and Arsenal emerged as the clear favourite.
Arsenal: A Dominant 76.65% Chance of Winning the League
Mikel Arteta’s side have displayed a level of consistency and balance that many of their rivals lack this season. The supercomputer projects Arsenal to finish the campaign with approximately 81 points. Their defensive organisation, attacking discipline and depth across key positions all contribute to their strong statistical backing.
Manchester City’s Prospects Take a Major Hit
Despite finishing third last season, Manchester City were expected to mount a stronger challenge this year, particularly after spending 235.1 million dollars in the summer transfer window. But the recent defeat has pushed their title-winning probability down to:
Just 13.64%
For a team of City’s resources, quality and ambition, this is an alarming decline. The concern now is whether they have already surrendered too much ground in a rapidly changing title race.
Chelsea’s Surprising Rise to Third Place in the Forecast
One of the standout results from Opta’s analysis is Chelsea’s predicted finish. According to the model:
Chelsea are expected to finish third
Projected points: 65
Even though this would still be four points fewer than last season, it would mark their best finish since 2021–22. Enzo Maresca’s side have shown resilience and tactical maturity in recent weeks, prompting the algorithm to place its confidence in them.
Race for the Champions League Spots
Opta predicts that all of the Premier League’s top five teams could qualify for next year’s Champions League. Despite their current slump, Liverpool are still projected to finish fourth with around 64 points. If that prediction holds true, it would be their lowest tally since the 2015–16 season.
But if Liverpool continue to drop points, they risk being overtaken by—
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
Brighton, Newcastle and Bournemouth remain in contention but face a tougher path toward a top-five finish.
Manchester United: Progress But No European Qualification
Despite managing to break into the top ten and sitting level on points with Liverpool, Manchester United’s deeper metrics remain unimpressive. According to Opta, they are unlikely to secure qualification for any European competition by season’s end.