Are Liverpool’s Title Hopes Already Over? The Stats You Need to See

Liverpool’s Title Hopes Crumbling After Another Defeat

Arne Slot and Liverpool are facing a grim November after a disastrous October. A 3-0 loss to Manchester City on Sunday at the Etihad left them reeling, with their hopes of a title push looking increasingly distant. That defeat marked their fifth loss in the last six Premier League games, signalling major trouble for the Reds.

“It feels like there have been too many defeats,” Slot admitted after the match. “Right now, our focus has to be on getting results, not worrying about the title race.”

This rough patch follows a summer of high expectations. Liverpool, fresh from clinching the Premier League title, splashed over £400 million on top-tier signings like Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike, and Jeremie Frimpong. But despite the big-money moves, the season has been a tale of sharp contrasts.

A Season of Contradictions

Liverpool’s season started brightly, with seven straight wins in all competitions. These victories included impressive results against Newcastle United, Arsenal, and Atlético Madrid, suggesting that the Reds were ready to challenge for another title. However, beneath the surface, warning signs were clear. In nearly every game, the winning goal came after the 83rd minute, and Liverpool allowed a two-goal lead to slip on three occasions.

The turning point came swiftly. Liverpool went on a six-match losing streak, with defeats to Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Manchester United, Eintracht Frankfurt, Brentford, and Palace again. While they briefly broke the streak with a 2-0 victory over Aston Villa and a 1-0 win over Real Madrid, Sunday’s humbling loss to City has once again thrown their title aspirations into doubt.

Struggles on the Road

One of the key issues for Liverpool this season has been their shocking form away from home. The Reds have lost four consecutive away matches and seven of their last ten on the road, a record not seen since 2012 under Kenny Dalglish.

Virgil van Dijk, however, remains unperturbed. “It’s too early to look at the table,” he said, maintaining that it’s the later months of the season that matter. “Seasons aren’t decided in November or December.”

However, if Van Dijk were to glance at the standings now, it would be tough to ignore. Liverpool are languishing in eighth place with 18 points from 11 matches, eight points behind leaders Arsenal and four behind second-place Manchester City. The task of catching up is far from impossible, but history suggests the Reds face an uphill battle.

The Stats That Could End Liverpool’s Title Push

Looking at the numbers, Liverpool’s position is already a worrying one. According to research, no team has ever had just 18 points after 11 games and gone on to win the Premier League title. Even teams with 19 points at this stage have struggled to lift the trophy.

Moreover, since Arsenal’s ‘Invincibles’ in 2003-04, only three teams have lost six matches in their opening 11 games and still gone on to win the league: Chelsea (2009-10), Manchester City (2013-14, 2020-21). The only side to win the title with seven defeats in a season was Blackburn Rovers in 1994-95.

Can Liverpool Recover?

With so much ground to make up, it’s clear Liverpool have little time to waste if they are to salvage their season. According to OPTA Projections, their chances of winning the league stand at just 7%. In comparison, Arsenal lead the race with a 63.6% chance, followed by Manchester City at 22.9%.

However, there is some hope. The difficult part of their fixture list is behind them. Liverpool’s next seven matches are against lower half teams, providing an opportunity to build momentum.

Their upcoming matches include:

In addition, they have Champions League fixtures against PSV Eindhoven and Inter Milan, which will keep the squad busy.

The immediate hope for Liverpool lies in taking advantage of their upcoming run of matches against weaker opponents. As the team continues to gel after a summer overhaul, they will need to rediscover their form quickly, or their title race could be over before Christmas.