The Formula 1 drivers’ championship is heading into an electrifying three-way showdown this weekend at Abu Dhabi’s Yas Marina Circuit. Lando Norris enters the final round with a 12-point lead over Red Bull’s Max Verstappen and a 16-point advantage over his McLaren team-mate Oscar Piastri. The stakes could hardly be higher, as Yas Marina has historically produced some of the sport’s most dramatic finales.
On paper, Norris is the favourite, thanks to his points advantage, but the reality of the situation is far more complex. Verstappen has dominated five of the last eight races leading into Abu Dhabi and, unlike Norris and Piastri, is racing without a team-mate to contend with inside the same garage. The championship is therefore poised on a knife-edge.
When it comes to the cars, McLaren has shown remarkable speed throughout the season. They boast the fastest average qualifying pace, outperforming rivals by 0.274 seconds over the season and 0.203 seconds across the last eight races. Yet, wins have been evenly shared among the three contenders: Norris, Verstappen, and Piastri each have seven victories, while Mercedes’ George Russell has captured the remaining two.
McLaren clinched the constructors’ championship back at the Singapore Grand Prix, a testament to having two consistently competitive drivers in a race-winning car. Verstappen, by contrast, has carried almost all of Red Bull’s points this season, with team-mate Yuki Tsunoda contributing little. As a result, Tsunoda will not be retained next year.
Track characteristics will play a significant role in Abu Dhabi. While the circuit features long corners that suit McLaren’s strengths, its final sector of short, 90-degree bends and chicanes favours Red Bull’s superior straight-line speed. McLaren has taken pole in the past four races, but Verstappen’s experience at Yas Marina is formidable: he has won four consecutive races here from 2020 to 2023, including a highly controversial 2021 victory over Lewis Hamilton.
Season-long form has fluctuated. In the first half, Red Bull was competitive mainly on high-speed circuits, while Piastri initially outperformed Norris over 14 races. Norris has surged post-summer, overcoming a 34-point deficit to Piastri. Meanwhile, Verstappen rebounded from a mid-season slump to claim three wins and a second-place finish in the last four races.
Team dynamics could be decisive. McLaren must balance the ambitions of two drivers, with team orders a potential factor if one contender’s championship hopes diminish. Verstappen races alone at Red Bull, though strategic assistance from other Red Bull-affiliated cars is possible.
The psychological pressure is highest on Norris, seeking his first drivers’ title and McLaren’s first since Lewis Hamilton in 2008. Red Bull and Verstappen, conversely, operate with experience and composure, having claimed the past four titles. Verstappen has repeatedly emphasised that victory “won’t change my life,” underscoring the Dutchman’s calm approach ahead of the grand finale.
With these factors converging, the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix promises to be one of the most gripping season finales in recent F1 history.